| EURUSD: 1.2378 |
| EurUsd is finishing the day roughly where it began, near 1.2400, after having recovered sharply from a swift dip to 1.2313 in NY. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral | Daily Indicators: Turning lower | Weekly Indicators: Turning higher | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The momentum indicators are still indecisive, with the short term charts looking neutral while The dailies show increasing signs of topping out and turning lower. Overall, I prefer to trade from the short side, looking to sell into rallies although today appears set to be choppy but without too much directional bias.On the downside, good support lies between 1.2305/1.2315. A break of 1.2300 would then allow a move towards 1.2225 although this is a long way off yet.
As before, with the weekly charts still looking positive, further Euro strength may lie down the track, and buying any dips may still be the medium term trade. If so, back above the session high of 1.2433 and the 5 Feb high of 1.2475 would then target 1.2520 and 1.2538, beyond which, would open the way to 1.2590. A cautious stance is currently required although, as with yesterday, I do favour selling into rallies towards 1.2430/50 as I think a look at 1.2300 may be on the cards at some stage.. |
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.2538 | 25 Jan high/100 MMA | 1.2350 | Minor | ||
| 1.2521/17 | 2 Feb high /Friday high | 1.2313 | 5 Feb low | ||
| 1.2500 | Minor | 1.2305 | (23.6% of 1.1553/1.2538) | ||
| 1.2470 | Minor | 1.2270 | Minor | ||
| 1.2433 | 5 Feb high | 1.2220 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
German Industrial Production, ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting, US Mortgage Approvals,
…
| USDJPY: 109.56 |
| US$Jpy has recovered from the session low of 108.45 and after a volatile session it sits close to the session highs of 109.65. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral | Daily Indicators: Neutral –Turning higher? | Weekly Indicators: Neutral | |||
| Preferred Strategy: All will depend on the direction of stocks but right now the short term momentum indicators are pointing higher, with further strength in the dollar likely to find sellers at 109.65 and at 109.80. Above there would look towards 110.00 and possibly back to 110.35/45, above which may be tricky in the near term, although a break would open up 111.00 again.On the downside, support will be seen at 109.00 and 108.70/80, below there, if we head back below the session low of 108.45 it may be that we head to the 26 Jan low of 108.27. A break of this would then find little to hold the dollar up until rising trend support at 107.75 and the 2017 low at 107.32.
Sidelined. |
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 110.47 | Friday high | 109.00 | Minor | ||
| 110.35 | (38.2% of 111.38/108.27) | 108.75 | Minor | ||
| 110.00 | Minor | 108.45 | 5 Feb low | ||
| 109.65 | 5 Feb high | 108.25 | Minor | ||
| 109.20 | 200 HMA | 107.75 | Rising trend support | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
Coincident Index, Leading Economic Index
…
| GBPUSD: 1.3947 |
| Sterling fell hard, to a brief low of 1.3835 in NY, before bouncing equally sharply to finish the day at 1.3950 | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Down – Possible basing formation. | Daily Indicators: Turning lower. | Weekly Indicators: Up | |||
| Preferred Strategy: As we said before, Cable remains very choppy and is probably best left alone right now, with too many factors in the mix to influence trade; stocks, Brexit, BOE etc. While the short term momentum indicators look heavy, they may be basing for a run higher but the dailies still look heavy and I suspect another run towards 1.3900 and to the session low at 1.3835 will eventually be seen so I still prefer to look for levels to get short.As with yesterday, look to sell rallies towards 1.4030/50 with a SL at just above 1.4100. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.4150 | Minor | 1.3925 | Minor | ||
| 1.4135 | 200 HMA | 1.3875 | Minor | ||
| 1.4080 | Minor | 1.3835 | 5 Feb low /(38.2% of 1.3038/1.4345) | ||
| 1.4035 | Minor | 1.3800 | Minor | ||
| 1.4000 | 5 Feb high | 1.3775 | Minor | ||
…
| USDCHF: 0.9368 |
| US$Chf climbed to 0.9397 before giving up some of the gains as safe have demand for the Chf set in, to finish at 0.9565, sitting right on the Daily Tenkan. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Neutral | Daily Indicators: Down – Possible basing formation | Weekly Indicators: Turning lower | |||
| Preferred Strategy: As before, the dailies may be basing out and could be turning higher so buying dips is again favoured although some caution is warranted incase safe haven demand for the Chf sets in once more. Overall I prefer $strength as a likely outcome.The 4 hour charts still look positive, and on the topside, resistance will be seen at 0.9365/70 (Daily Tenkan) and then at 0.9390/95, a break of which could see the dollar carry on to the 26 Jan high 0.9430. Given the positive momentum of the 4 hour charts, buying dips for the next 24 hours is mildly preferred, with a SL placed tight under 0.9290. Under this could return to 0.9250 and then, below this would be precarious as there is a black hole until around 0.9150 although I think we are safe for now..
Buy US$Chf @ 0.9320. SL @ 0.9285, TP @ 0.9415 |
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.9490 | Minor | 0.9330 | Minor | ||
| 0.9445 | Minor | 0.9305 | Minor | ||
| 0.9425 | (23.6% of 0.9977/0.9250) | 0.9290 | Minor | ||
| 0.9397 | 5 Feb high | 0.9275 | Minor | ||
| 0.9365 | Daily Tenkan | 0.9250 | Friday low | ||
…
| AUDUSD: 0.7894 |
| After testing 0.7835 on a couple of occasions, forming a short term double bottom, the Aus is closing the US session at 0.7890 and appears set for another run back above 0.7900. Risk sentiment flows have been the main driver on Tuesday and the same will apply today, with the AIG Performance of Construction Index being the only domestic data due. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher | Daily Indicators: Down | Weekly Indicators: Neutral – Turning higher | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The Aud looks a bit perkier today and with the short term momentum indicators pointing higher, a break of 0.7905 could see a run back towards 0.7950. The dailies are pointing strongly lower though so looking for levels to sell into is probably the plan, with the initial support being seen at around 0.7875. Under there, there is minor support at 0.7835/45 and then again at 0.7815/20. Under here sees sub 0.78, but unlikely today.Right now selling rallies is preferred.
Sell AudUsd @ 0.7950. SL @ 0.8005, TP @ 0.7850 |
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.7985 | (38.2% of 0.8135/0.7835) | 0.7850 | Minor | ||
| 0.7965 | Minor | 0.7835 | 5 Feb low | ||
| 0.7950 | Daily Kijun/(38.2% of 0.8135/0.7835) | 0.7817 | (50% of 0.7502/0.8135) | ||
| 0.7920 | Minor | 0.7800 | Minor | ||
| 0.7905 | Session high /(23.6% of 0.8135/0.7835) | 0.7775 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
AIG Performance of Construction Index
…
| NZDUSD: 0.7306 |
| The Kiwi is back at 0.7300 today after having recovered from the 0.7556 low and now awaits the Q4 employment data, due shortly, (+ RBNZ tomorrow). Earlier, the GDT auction price rose by 5.9% (vs 4.9% prev) | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher | Daily Indicators: Turning lower | Weekly Indicators: Turning higher? | |||
| Preferred Strategy: While the daily charts are looking increasingly toppish the short term momentum indicators are constructive ahead of the jobs data. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 0.7317 (Session high ) but above which could see a run back towards 0.7350 and possibly even back towards 0.7400, which would be sell territory I think, if seen.On the downside, support will be seen at 0.7255/60, and a break of this could lead to a steeper decline towards 0.7215/0.7185. Selling near term rallies may now be the plan,
Sell NzdUsd @ 0.7370. SL @ 0.7420, TP @ 0.7200 |
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.7400 | Psychological | 0.7280 | Minor | ||
| 0.7375 | Minor | 0.7256 | 5 Feb low | ||
| 0.7350 | Minor | 0.7234 | 24 Jan low | ||
| 0.7330 | Minor | 0.7220 | 12 Jan low | ||
| 0.7317 | 5 Feb high | 0.7200 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
Unemployment
By February 7, 2018
Source: FXCharts