| EURUSD: 1.1161 |
Monday has had a tight range of 1.1160/89.
The dailies look as if they may be in the process of topping out although the short term momentum indicators are fairly neutral, but if we break below the good support nearby at 1.1160/65, we could see a run back towards 1.1100 and then towards 1.1080 and 1.1050.
On the topside, above Monday’s high, the initial resistance will be seen at 1.1200 ahead of Friday’s high at 1.1234, Thursday’s high of 1.1250 and then at the trend high of 1.1268. Beyond there, unlikely today, there is little to stop it heading back to 1.1300, and above that, the points to watch are at 1.1365 (18 Aug high), 1.1427 (24 June high) and then at 1.1450 (major descending trend resistance).
Selling rallies now appears to be the game, with a SL above 1.1270, where a channel top appears to have formed
| 24 Hour: Neutral – Prefer to sell rallies | Medium Term: Turning mildly bearish. | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.1300 | 9 Nov high | 1.1165/60 | (23.6% of 1.0838/1.1268)/22 May low /Session low |
| 1.1268 | 22 May high | 1.1140 | Minor |
| 1.1249 | 25 May high | 1.1104 | (38.2% of 1.0838/1.1268) |
| 1.1234 | Friday high | 1.1075 | 18 May low |
| 1.1189 | Session high | 1.1052 | (50% of 1.0838/1.1268) |
Economic data highlights will include:
EU Economic Sentiment Indicator, Industrial Confidence, Services Sentiment, Business Climate, German CPI, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure, Case Shiller House Price Index, Dallas Fed Mfg Business Climate
| USDJPY: 111.26 |
Monday has had a tight range of 111.16/46.
The momentum indicators are mixed/neutral again on Tuesday and another choppy, rangebound session, largely confined to the 111/112 area would not surprise. While the dailies remain rather negative, the short term momentum indicators are flat. On the topside, above the Monday high could see a run towards Fridays’ top at 111.84 and then to 112.00/10, which would appear to be toppish for Tuesday, if we get there. Beyond that though leads to 112.30 and then to 112.75, which might be a decent sell area if we ever get there.
On the downside, below 111.00 would lead back to 110.85, which should be strong, and then to 110.60, ahead of last Thursday’s low of 110.23. There are better things to trade while the Yen is chopping around like this.
| 24 Hour: Range Trade | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 112.30 | (50% of 114.36/110.23) | 111.16 | Session low |
| 112.12 | 24 May high | 110.85/87 | 23 May low /Friday low |
| 111.95 | 25 May high | 110.57 | 200 WMA |
| 111.84 | Friday high | 110.40` | Minor |
| 111.46 | Session high | 110.23 | 17 May low |
Economic data highlights will include:
Unemployment, Retail Trade
| GBPUSD: 1.2838 |
Cable continues to recover from Friday’s 1.2775 low and today traded a slightly higher range of 1.2793/1.2849.
The daily indicators are still pointing lower and if we head below Friday’s low of 1.2775 then we could see a move towards minor support at 1.2750/55, below which there is little to hold Cable up until 1.2685/90.
The short term momentum indicators are in recovery mode and on the topside, resistance will be seen at around 1.2850 and then at the minor Fibo levels of the fall from the trend high of 1.3047, beginning at around 1.2875.
For the time being I mildly prefer to sell rallies, although most of the direction until the June 8 election will be poll driven. Anything showing the Conservatives widening their lead over Labour will see a quick reversal to the topside, so keep stops tight.
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.2980 | (76.4% of 1.3047/1.2775) | 1.2793 | Session low |
| 1.2940 | (61.8% of 1.3047/1.2775) | 1.2775 | Friday low |
| 1.2910 | (50% of 1.3047/1.2775) | 1.2756 | 21 April low |
| 1.2878 | (38.2% of 1.3047/1.2775) | 1.2710 | Minor |
| 1.2849 | Session high | 1.2688 | (38.2% of 1.2108/1.3047) |
| USDCHF: 0.9773 |
US$Chf has had a tight, rangebound session (0.9730/69).
The charts, including the dailies, do look as though they may be turning to point slightly higher, and on the topside, back above 0.9770 (session high) would find further sellers at around 0.9775/85, above which could see a run back to 0.9800/10. Back above here would then run towards 0.9845, although possibly not today.
On the downside, back below 0.9730, good support should be seen at 0.9700/0.9690. Below there would then open the way back to 0.9675 and to 0.9600/40 although this looks unlikely to be seen today.
I am neutral on US$Chf although if the Euro slides against the dollar, as looks possible, then US$Chf may begin to make some gains, turning the daily momentum indicators increasingly higher.
| 24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips | Medium Term: Turning mildly bullish | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.9825 | 15 May high | 0.9730 | Session low |
| 0.9804 | 19 May high | 0.9695/91 | 25 May low / 22 May low |
| 0.9786 | (23.6% of 1.0100/0.9691) | 0.9675 | Minor |
| 0.9775 | 24 May high | 0.9635 | Minor |
| 0.9767 | Session high | 0.9600 | Minor |
| AUDUSD: 0.7437 |
AudUsd has been confined to a tight range of 0.7426/49, leaving a neutral stance intact.
The momentum indicators are mixed although the daily charts still look mildly constructive, and above Friday’s high we might expect a squeeze back towards minor resistance at 0.7480 and possibly to 0.7500 ahead of the 23 May high of 0.7517. Above here would then look for a run towards 0.7540/45 and eventually to 0.7555 although that remains remote.
On the downside, support will be seen 0.7420/25 ahead of 0.7400/10 and the recent lows at 0.7384/88. Below this would open the way to the 12 May low of 0.7366 and 0.7350 (minor), ahead of the stronger 0.7330 level. Back below the 9 May low of 0.7328 would find little to hold the Aud up until 0.7300 and the rising trend support, at 0.7285, although this seems unlikely to be seen for a while.
A neutral stance is required, although the dailies do seem to hint at slightly higher levels, but the prospect of a soft (even negative) GDP reading next week may well limit any positive momentum. Today’s Building Permits will be closely watched. They are a volatile set of figures, but today’s expectations are for a reading of +3%. China is on holiday
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.7538 | (50% of 0.7750/0.7328) | 0.7426 | Session low |
| 0.7515/17 | 25 May high/23 May high | 0.7421 | Friday low |
| 0.7480 | Minor | 0.7407/01 | 19 May low /(61.8% of 0.7329/0.7517) |
| 0.7460 | Friday high | 0.7388/84 | 17 May low/15 May low |
| 0.7449 | Session high | 0.7373 | (76.4% of 0.7329/0.7517) |
Economic data highlights will include:
Building Permits (Apr), China holiday
| NZDUSD: 0.7053 |
The Kiwi briefly squeezed up to 0.7088 on Monday in European trade but is now back at 0.7050 having seen an early session low of 0.7035.
The daily momentum indicators are pointing higher on Tuesday, but above the session high, good resistance lies immediately ahead at 0.7090/95, above which the 200 DMA lies at 0.7105.
On the downside, below the session low of 0.7035, the next support lies at around 0.7025 ahead of Friday’s low at 0.7006. A break of 0.7000, unlikely today I suspect, could take us back to the 24 May low of 0.6988, below which would see a run to 0.6965 and possibly to 0.6940.
| 24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies | Medium Term: Neutral -Cautiously bullish. | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.7160 | (61.8% pivot of 0.7375/0.817) | 0.7035 | Session low |
| 0.7130 | Minor | 0.7025 | (23.6% of 0.6817/0.7087) |
| 0.7105 | 200 DMA | 0.7006 | Friday low |
| 0.7090/95 | 21 Mar high/(50% pivot of 0.7375/0.817) | 0.7000 | Pivot |
| 0.7087 | Session high | 0.6988 | 24 May low |
Economic data highlights will include:
ANZ Business Confidence (May)
