29 Nov: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas: FXCharts

On the topside, minor resistance will be seen at 1.1875 ahead of 1.1900 and 1.1920. Further out, offers will arrive at 1.1950/65, above which would see little resistance until 1.2000. Beyond this would open the way to 1.2030/50 and even on towards the 8 Sept low at 1.2096.

Preferred Strategy:  For Wednesday, I prefer to look to sell into rallies towards 1.1880, but with a tight SL placed above 1.1920.

EU Nov consumer confidence & German  Nov HICP & CPI are data risks for the EU on Wednesday, Janet Yellen and other Fed speakers arrive en masse in the US session.

Sell EurUsd @ 1.1880. SL @ 1.1925, TP @ 1.1780

On the topside, resistance will be seen at 111.70 but the 4 hour charts look positive and a break would allow a run towards 111.95/112.05, which should be strong but a break of which would open up 112.35/40.

Preferred Strategy:  Another choppy range-day between 111/112 would not surprise. I mildly prefer buying dips, with a SL place at 110.80

Buy US$Jpy @ 111.10. SL @ 110.80, TP @ 112.00

On the downside, minor support will again be seen 1.3280/00 ahead of 1.3220 and buying dips would currently seem to be the plan although we can expect it to stay volatile so a nimble stance is required.

Preferred Strategy:  Overall I remain fairly neutral – as per the 4 hour charts – albeit growing cautiously bullish. A break of 1.3380 would suggest a run to 1.3450. I prefer to trade Cable from the long side against the crosses rather than the US$, and remain long GbpAud.

The daily momentum indicators still point lower, but may be flattening out. In the near term, 0.9800 should be decent support but a sustained break would allow a run towards 0.9775 and possibly to 0.9725/30 and then to 0.9700/05,

The dollar looks as though it may be trying to form a near term base and buying dips is preferred today.

Preferred Strategy:  Buy US$Chf @ 0.9800. SL @ 0.9770, TP @ 0.9900

I would be a little wary on the topside, and if we break below 0.7590/85 we could quickly head down to 0.7565 and 0.7550 ahead of the stronger 0.7530/35, area, which will continue to be strong, but below which would target Fibo support at around 0.7515. A break of this would then look towards 0.7485 and 0.7460/70 (Rising trend support) albeit this is some way off.

Preferred Strategy:  Playing the Aud from the short side on the crosses seems to be the best plan right now and I prefer to remain long GbpAud or long EurAud. Against the US$, I like to sell AudUsd at around 0.7610/20 with a SL at 0.7675 and a TP at 0.7540.

The 4 hour momentum indicators appear to be rolling over though, and if we do head lower, then below 0.6900 the  initial support lies at 0.6885, ahead of 0.6850 and then the stronger level at 0.6790/6800. Below this would find that there is little support ahead of 0.6670 although this remains a long way off and before then we are likely to see bids at 0.6750/60 and again at 0.6700/10.

Preferred Strategy:  Overall, with the longer term (weekly) charts looking heavy, I suspect the Kiwi is currently biding its time ahead of a more sustained test of the downside. In the short term though, I suspect another test of 0.6920/30 may lie ahead and it is possible that we could even see a return to the neckline of the major head and shoulders, at 0.6990, before heading lower. Today could be quiet and a neutral stance seems wise.

The Financial Stability Report is due shortly.