- Economics/ Politics/Central Banks:
- The US$ remain under heavy pressure after some bullish comments from central bankers concerning monetary policy again boosted risk sentiment as traders speculated that both the BOE and the BOC may adopt tighter monetary policy measures soon.
- BOE Governor, Mark Carney, reversed his recent comment that there ‘is no need to raise rates soon’, by hinting that a rate hike may be in the pipeline.
- Bank of Canada Governor, Poloz adopted a similar tone to Carney with regard to monetary policy, reiterating that the BOC may consider raising rates, asserting that rate cuts from 2015 ‘have done their job’.
- Currencies:
- The Euro was choppy but remained well bid at the end of the session. Early headlines that the market had misjudged Draghi’s comments of the previous session saw a quick sell off but the bid tone quickly returned once Carney had spoken, keeping the US$ on pressure on all fronts apart from the Yen.
- The commodity currencies ran higher in line with the move against a softening US$.
| EURUSD: 1.1378 |
- Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Mixed – Becoming Overbought
- Daily momentum indicators: Turning higher
- Upcoming market moving events: German CPI, EU Economic Sentiment Indicator, Industrial Confidence, Services Sentiment, Business Climate, US Q1 GDP, Personal Consumption/Expenditure, Jobless Claims, Feds Bullard Speech
| 24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips | Medium Term: Mildly Bullish | ||
| Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The Euro looks as though it wants to test the major descending trend resistance seen at 1.1450, so buying dips seems to be the plan. It will be volatile though. Keep SL just below the 1.1290 session low. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.1480 | Minor | 1.1340 | Minor |
| 1.1450 | Descending trend resistance | 1.1294 | (23.6% of 1.1117/1.1348) |
| 1.1429 | 24 June ’16 high (post-Brexit vote) | 1.1260 | (38.2% of 1.1117/1.1348) |
| 1.1400 | Minor | 1.1234 | (50% pivot of 1.1117/1.1348) |
| 1.1390 | Session high | 1.1205 | (61.8% of 1.1117/1.1348) |
Economic data highlights will include:
German Consumer Confidence, CPI, EU Economic Sentiment Indicator, Industrial Confidence, Services Sentiment, Business Climate, US GDP, (Q1), US Personal Consumption/Expenditure
…
| USDJPY: 112.29 |
- Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): xxxx
- Daily momentum indicators: xxxx
Upcoming market moving events: Retail Trade, Foreign Bond/Stocks Investment, US Q1 GDP, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure
| 24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips | Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips | ||
| Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The momentum indicators generally look mildly positive, and a “risk-on” mood will prompt further Yen weakness. The major target is 112.80, but beyond which would allow a move towards 113+. Keep any SL below the 100 DMA. Exporters are lining up above 112.50 so any upside progress may be slow. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 113.05 | (76.4% of 114.36/108.80) | 112.050 | Minor |
| 112.80 | Descending trend resistance | 111.82/80 | Session low/100 DMA |
| 112.60 | Minor | 111.60 | (23.6% of 108.80/112.33) |
| 112.46 | 26 June high | 111.40 | 200 HMA |
| 112.41 | Session high | 111.05 | (38.2% of 108.80/112.33) /200 DMA |
Economic data highlights will include:
Retail Trade, Foreign Bond/Stocks Investment
…
| GBPUSD: 1.2930 |
- Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Mildly Bullish
- Daily momentum indicators: Turning higher
- Upcoming market moving events: Net Lending to Individuals, Consumer Credit , Consumer Confidence
| 24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Cable soared after Carney turned around last week’s view when he said that “now is not the time to raise rates”. Today he was less dovish and noted the upcoming debate over a possible rate hike. An early dip saw Cable fall to 1.2793 before he spoke, but since then it has traded up to 1.2971, and looks capable of testing 1.300 and the May high/descending trend resistance, which should be strong if we get there. Buying dips is again the plan, with a SL now placed under 1.2825. It may be that we are in a large triangle formation, as per the daily chart below. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.3060 | Descending trend resistance | 1.2900 | Minor |
| 1.3047 | 18 May high | 1.2880 | (23.6% of 1.2588/1.2971) |
| 1.3000 | Minor | 1.2825 | (38.2% of 1.2588/1.2971) |
| 1.2977 | 8 June high | 1.2793 | Session low |
| 1.2971 | Session high | 1.2780 | (50% pivot of 1.2588/1.2971) |
Economic data highlights will include:
Net Lending to Individuals (May)
…
| USDCHF: 0.9595 |
- Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Mixed – Mildly Bearish
- Daily momentum indicators: Turning lower
- Upcoming market moving events: xxx
| 24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to sell rallies | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Preferred 24-hour Strategy: US$Chf is heavy, in line with the dollar move seen elsewhere and looks set to test the November spike low of 0.9548, and possibly 0.9500 and lower. Selling rallies is preferred. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.9735 | Minor | 0.9578 | Session low |
| 0.9700 | (23.6% of 1.0099/0.9578) | 0.9548 | 9 Nov low |
| 0.9675 | Minor | 0.9521 | 23 June ’16 low |
| 0.9647 | Session high | 0.9500 | Minor |
| 0.9615 | Minor | 0.9470 | Minor |
…
| AUDUSD: 0.7640 |
- Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Mildly Bullish
- Daily momentum indicators: Neutral
- Upcoming market moving events: New Home Sales
| 24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The choppy price action either side of 0.7600 continues although the short term momentum indicators now look as though we may want to test higher levels. The medium term outlook remains neutral but buying dips towards 0.7600, with a SL now placed below the day’s low of 0.9578 seems to be a plan. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.7749 | 21 Mar high | 0.7620 | Minor |
| 0.7700 | Minor | 0.7600 | Minor |
| 0.7685 | Descending trend resistance | 0.7578 | Session low |
| 0.7665 | Minor | 0.7559 | 26 June low |
| 0.7647 | Session high | 0.7533/35 | (38.2% of 0.7370/0.7635) /Daily cloud top/22 June low |
Economic data highlights will include:
HIA New Home Sales
…
| NZDUSD: 0.7306 |
- Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): xxxx
- Daily momentum indicators: xxxx
- Upcoming market moving events: xxxx
| 24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Having looked heavy heading into early Europe, the Kiwi has bounced on the back of the soft $US and is currently trading just under the session high of 0.7313. A cautious stance is required although the short term momentum indicators do hint at higher levels ahead. The dailies look less certain, but buying dips towards 0.7275/80, with a SL placed just under 0.7250 may be a plan on Thursday. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.7402 | 8 Nov high | 0.7265 | 26 June low |
| 0.7360 | Minor | 0.7248 | 23 June low |
| 0.7343 | 26 June high | 0.7220 | (23.6% of 0.6816/0.7343) |
| 0.7325 | Minor | 0.7193 | 22 June low |
| 0.7313 | Session high | 0.7185 | 15 June low |
Economic data highlights will include:
T: ANZ Activity Outlook, Business Confidence (June)
By June 29, 2017
Source: FXCharts