- Economics/ Politics/Central Banks:
- US Durable Goods for May were weak: -1.1% vs -0.6% after the previous reading of -0.9%
- US Dallas Fed Mfg Bus Index for Jun @ 15 vs 17.20 for May
- UK PM May strikes a $1.3 billion deal with the Northern Ireland DUP party to prop up the Conservative government
- Draghi/Yellen will be speaking today
- Currencies:
- EurUsd has finished on a soft note, after a choppy session, despite the poor US data.
- US$Jpy breaking above strong resistance in what could be a bullish move, despite the soft US data.
- Cable choppy
- Aud and Kiwi spiked higher after the Durable Goods Orders but are now back within their ranges as the US dollar finished the day on a firm note.
| EURUSD: 1.1182 |
- Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Mixed/Mildly Bearish
- Daily momentum indicators: Neutral/Mildly Bearish?
- Upcoming market moving events: Draghi/Janet Yellen speeches. Also Fed’s Harker/Kashkari speeches
| 24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to sell rallies | Medium Term: Mildly bearish | ||
| Preferred 24-hour Strategy: As before, I prefer to sell rallies above 1.1200, with a tight SL above 1.1230, looking for a move to 1.1110 and eventually to 1.1060/70. Overall, further rangebound trade seems likely but Mario Draghi and Janet Yellen may provide something more directional today. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.1300 | 9 Nov high | 1.1171 | Session low/200 HMA |
| 1.1295 | 14 June high | 1.1138 | 22 June low |
| 1.1253 | (76.4% pivot of 1.1295/1.1118) | 1.1108 | 30 May low |
| 1.1228 | (61.8% pivot of 1.1295/1.1118) | 1.1075 | 18 May low |
| 1.1219/08 | Session high /Daily Tenkan | 1.1067 | (23.6% of 1.0340/1.1295) |
Economic data highlights will include:
ECB Governor, Mario Draghi speech, US Case Shiller House Price Index, Richmond Fed Mfg Index, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory, Janet Yellen speech, Fed’s Harker/Kashkari speeches
…
| USDJPY: 111.83 |
- Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Turning higher
- Daily momentum indicators: Turning higher
- Upcoming market moving events: Nil
| 24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips | Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips | ||
| Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The dollar does seem to be on the point of breaking higher although the soft US data is likely to slow any possible rally. I prefer to buy dips, with a SL now placed below 110.90. Good resistance lies at 112.10/20 but above which could see a run towards 112.80/113.00. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 112.80 | Descending trend resistance | 111.70 | Minor |
| 112.60 | Minor | 111.35 | 100 HMA |
| 112.22 | (61.8% of 114.36/108.80) | 111.12 | Session low /200 HMA |
| 112.12 | 24 May high/Daily cloud top | 110.94 | 22 June low |
| 111.94/90/82 | Session high/100 DMA /Daily cloud base | 110.72 | 100 DMA |
…
| GBPUSD: 1.2719 |
- Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Neutral
- Daily momentum indicators: Neutral
- Upcoming market moving events: Brexit talks, UK Financial Stability Report, CBI Distributive Trade Survey – Realised
| 24 Hour Outlook: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral. There are easier things to look at. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.2875 | (61.8% of 1.3047/1.2588) | 1.2705 | Session low |
| 1.2817 | 14 June high | 1.2674 | 23 June low |
| 1.2800 | Minor | 1.2653 | 22 June low |
| 1.2763 | (38.2% of 1.3047/1.2588) | 1.2622 | 100 DMA |
| 1.2759 | Session high | 1.2582/88 | 21 June low/(50% pivot of 2197/1.3047) |
Economic data highlights will include:
UK Financial Stability Report, CBI Distributive Trade Survey – Realised
…
| USDCHF: 0.9718 |
- Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour):
- Daily momentum indicators: Neutral/Turning higher?
- Upcoming market moving events:
| 24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Although it remains very choppy I prefer to buy dips in US$Chf, with a SL place under 0.9640. A break of 0.9770 is needed to see any possibly acceleration to the topside | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.9807 | 30 May high | 0.9700 | Minor |
| 0.9785 | Minor | 0.9675 | 23 June low |
| 0.9770 | 15 June high | 0.9640 | 14 June low |
| 0.9742 | 22 June high | 0.9613/16 | 6 June low /9 June low |
| 0.9737 | Session high | 0.9600 | Minor |
…
| AUDUSD: 0.7583 |
- Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Neutral
- Daily momentum indicators: Neutral
- Upcoming market moving events: RBA Debelle Speech
| 24 Hour Outlook: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Preferred 24-hour Strategy: We saw the move towards 0.7600 that we discussed yesterday although the Aud is now back at 0.7585 and looks set to remain choppy in the coming session. Although relatively well underpinned, I see little reason for it to head much higher and prefer to stand aside for now. Debelle speaking later. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.7650 | Minor | 0.7559 | Session low |
| 0.7635/31 | 14 June high/15 June high | 0.7533/35 | (38.2% of 0.7370/0.7635) /Daily cloud top/22 June low |
| 0.7623 | 20 June high | 0.7525/21/23 | 200 DMA /12 June low |
| 0.7598 | Session high | 0.7502 | (50% of 0.7370/0.7635) |
| 0.7585/82 | 21 June high/23 June low | 0.7471 | (61.8% of 0.7370/0.7635) |
Economic data highlights will include: RBA Debelle Speech
…
| NZDUSD: 0.7285 |
- Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour):
- Daily momentum indicators: Neutral
- Upcoming market moving events: Trade Balance
| 24 Hour Outlook: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The Kiwi ran up to 0.7310 on the release of the soft US data. It has since given up some of those gains but remains underpinned. It does seem toppish (and determined not to allow anyone to be short if/when it finally does head lower) and I prefer to sell rallies, with a SL placed tight above 0.7320. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.7381 | 9 Nov high | 0.7261 | Session low |
| 0.7350 | Minor | 0.7248 | 23 June low |
| 0.7335 | Minor | 0.7220 | Minor |
| 0.7319 | 14 June high | 0.7193 | 22 June low |
| 0.7298/96 | 19 June high/23 June high | 0.7185 | 15 June low |
Economic data highlights will include:
T: Trade Balance (May)
By June 27, 2017
Source: FXCharts