| EURUSD: 1.1743 |
| 24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips | Medium Term: Mildly Bullish | ||
| The dollar is weaker on all fronts following the FOMC outcome, with the Euro reaching levels last seen in January 2015 (1.1739).We are now heading into strong resistance within the band of 1.1735/1.1790 although the momentum indicators do suggest that we are likely to see further tests of the topside. A break of 1.1800 could mean that we on our way to 1.2000 and potentially to 1.2150 although I am not sure who would want to be buying the Euro at such dizzy levels.
On the downside, near term support arrives at 1.1700/15, ahead of the May 2016 high/pivot of 1.1616 which has successfully underpinned the Euro in recent sessions. A downside break of 1.1600 could then see a run back towards 1.1560/80 and possibly to 1.1500. Preferred Strategy: A cautious stance is required, but we are running out of resistance levels ahead of 1.2000 and buying dips towards 1.1650 with a SL placed under 1.1600 would seem to be the plan. |
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| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.1975 | Minor | 1.1700 | Minor |
| 1.1870 | Minor | 1.1650 | Minor |
| 1.1790 | 200 WMA | 1.1612 | Session low |
| 1.1770 | Minor | 1.1590 | (23.6% of 1.1118/1.1739) |
| 1.1735/40 | (38.2% of 1.3993/1.0340)/Session high | 1.1550 | 200 HMA |
Economic data highlights will include:
T: German Consumer Confidence, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Wholesale Inventories (Jun), Durable Goods (June), Kansas Fed Mfg Activity (Jul),
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| USDJPY: 111.10 |
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| US$Jpy took out some strong resistance levels in trading up to 112.19 ahead of the Fed, but then fell hard, reaching a low of 111.05 before closing the day at 111.25.The dollar now looks heavy, and a downside break of 111.00 would allow a return to the previous session low of 110.82, the trend support at 110.75 and then towards 110.55/65 and possibly to 110.15.
On the topside, minor resistance will be seen at 111.45 and then again at 111.85. 112.00 looks unlikely to be revisited today but if wrong, we could see a return to 112.20. Preferred Strategy: Neutral |
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| Resistance | Support | ||
| 112.19 | Session high | 111.10/05 | 200 WMA /Session low |
| 111.95/112.00 | 100 WMA /200 DMA | 110.75 | Rising trend support |
| 111.85 | 200 HMA | 110.64/62 | 16 June low/24 July low |
| 111.70 | Minor | 110.55 | (61.8% of 108.12/114.50) |
| 111.45 | 100 HMA | 110.30 | Minor |
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| GBPUSD: 1.3119 |
| 24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Sterling has headed higher following the Fed decision and it has run into the good resistance at 1.3115/25, which may continue to cap it for a while, but above which there is little to stop it heading on towards 1.3200 and then to 1.3280. Above there would be increasingly bullish, possibly opening up the major Fibo pivot at 1.3420 (50% pivot of 1.5017/1.1821) although this currently remains over the horizon.On the downside, minor support lies at 1.3080 and 1.3030 ahead of 1.3000. Below Monday’s low of 1.2983, unlikely for a while I suspect, could then see a return to last week’s low of 1.2933 which would find added support at the Fibo level at 1.2920.
Preferred Strategy: I prefer to buy dips, looking for a break of 1.3125, but with a SL placed below 1.2980. |
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| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.3280 | 15 Sept 2016 high | 1.3080 | Minor |
| 1.3250 | Minor | 1.3030 | Minor |
| 1.3200 | Minor | 1.2998 | Session low |
| 1.3160 | Minor | 1.2983 | 24 July low |
| 1.3125/20 | 18 July high/Session high | 1.2952 | 21 July low |
Economic data highlights will include:
T: CBI Distributive Trade Survey – Realised
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| USDCHF: 0.9503 |
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Mildly Bearish | ||
| Although the Euro has headed to new multi year highs, US$Chf currently remains comfortably above the recent 0.9440 lows, and further choppy trade would appear to be in store. The momentum indicators are now mixed and a neutral stance is favoured although the weekly momentum indicators do hint that eventually the dollar is headed lower.On the topside, the 200 WMA at 0.9555 will again provide a hurdle, a break of which would then allow a run back towards the session high at 0.9594 and possibly higher, towards last week’s high at 0.9620.
The dailies look less certain today about any renewed dollar strength, and if we turn lower again we could head back below 0.9500 (session low: 0.9498) and back to the strong level at 0.9435/45 below which there is little support to be seen until 0.9330, and below that, not much again until 0.9260. Preferred Strategy: Neutral |
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| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.9635 | 18 July high | 0.9498 | Session low |
| 0.9620 | 20 July high | 0.9455 | Minor |
| 0.9594 | (23.6% of 1.0099/0.9437) /Session high | 0.9446/42/37 | Session low/3 May 2016 low/21 July low |
| 0.9555 | 200 WMA | 0.9400 | Minor |
| 0.9535 | 200 HMA | 0.9360 | Minor |
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| AUDUSD: 0.8004 |
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral – Possibly look to buy dips. | ||
| Having seen a low of 0.7877 in early European trade, the Aud has shot up to a high of 0.8013 following the FOMC meeting, closing at 0.8000.The short term momentum indicators suggest that a cautious stance is warranted at these levels although the longer term charts still hint that buying dips remains the medium term plan. The weekly charts suggest that at some stage we are in for a stronger test of the topside although the 200 WMA is currently providing strong resistance. A monthly close (Monday) above the 100 MMA (0.7975) would reinforce that view, and once above 0.8015 there is little to stop the Aud from heading to 0.8160.
On the downside, the 100 MMA may act as a near term magnate, below which there is minor support 0.7940 and again at 0.7900, ahead of the minor double bottom at 0.7875. Preferred Strategy: Looking to buy dips towards 0.7900/50 seems to be the plan, with a SL placed below 0.7875. |
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| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.8162 | May 2015 high | 0.7975 | 100 MMA |
| 0.8100 | Minor | 0.7940 | Minor |
| 0.8080 | Minor | 0.7900 | Minor |
| 0.8050 | Minor | 0.7874 | 21 July low /Session low |
| 0.8015/13 | 200 WMA/Session high | 0.7830 | (23.6% of 0.7328/0.8013) |
Economic data highlights will include:
Import Export Index (Q2)
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| NZDUSD: 0.7517 |
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips | ||
| The Kiwi has shot up to 0.7528 following the FOMC, taking out some decent resistance levels along the way and is closing above 0.7500, last seen in April 2015.As with the Aud, although the short term momentum indicators are a little mixed the daily and weekly charts suggest that further gains look likely, and there is now there is little resistance to stop the Kiwi heading on towards 0.7545, 0.7575 and possibly even to 0.7740/45 (April 2015 high).
The downside will find support, below 0.7500, at 0.7485 and then again at 7455, at 0.8430 and at 0.7400 below which could then head towards 0.7370, which looks way over the horizon. Preferred Strategy: Neutral – Buying dips looks to be the plan although at these levels I prefer to remain neutral. |
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| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.7600 | Minor | 0.7500 | Minor |
| 0.7575 | May 2015 high | 0.7485 | Minor |
| 0.7560 | Minor | 0.7455 | Minor |
| 0.7545 | 100 MMA/55 MMA | 0.7430 | 100 HMA |
| 0.7528 | Session high | 0.7400 | 25 July low |
By July 27, 2017