22 Nov: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas: FXCharts

If we head lower, then below the session low of 1.1712 would allow a move to 1.1700, below which 1.1670/80 would attract. This was the previous H/S neckline and is also the 61.8% Fibo level (1.1670) of the recent rally from 1.1553, and should see decent bids but below which opens the way to 1.1650 and eventually to 1.1625.

The daily MACDs still suggest that further gains are possible, and back above the session high of 1.1757 could then allow a run back to the 20 Nov high of 1.1807. Above here would open up 1.1820/30, which would find good sellers ahead of 1.1855/60 and then 1.1880/85, beyond which would allow a run towards 1.1900+.

Preferred Strategy:  For Wednesday, I prefer to adopt a fairly neutral stance while waiting for the FOMC Minutes but out of choice I would look to sell into strength above 1.1780, with a SL placed above 1.1830.

Sell EurUsd @ 1.1780. SL @ 1.1830, TP @ 1.1700.

The daily momentum indicators are still pointing lower though and at some stage we could yet see another run to levels below 112.00. Decent support lies in the 111.50/70 area where it might be worth trying buy some dollars if we ever see it down there.

Preferred Strategy:  Support will again arrive at 112.20/112.00 and I doubt that we go under here today, and overall I suspect we may be in for a couple of days of 112/113 range trading.

In the longer term I still prefer to look to buy the dollar but prefer to wait until we see 112.00/111.50.

In the shorter term: Buy US$Jpy @ 112.10. SL @ 111.40, TP @ 113.00

For Wednesday, further choppy trade near current levels would not really surprise, and on the topside, resistance will again be seen at 1.3265/70, above which 1.3285/1.3300 would find good offers. A break of 1.3300 would then allow 1.3320/30 although this may be a step too far today

On the downside, support will again be seen 1.3200/10 ahead of 1.3185, 1.3150 and 1.3135. Under this opens the way to the rising trend support low, now at 1.3100.

Preferred Strategy:  I remain neutral, possibly very cautiously bullish (Long GbpAud), and as long as we don’t see a daily close below 1.3165, which would negate the series of higher highs/lows, I will stick with the mildly bullish tone.

Further out, given the positive look of the weeklies, if we can eventually take out 1.0015/25 we could then head on to take another look at 1.0035/40, above which there is little to hold the dollar up ahead of 1.0100, and beyond that to 1.1025 and 1.0170.

On the downside, support will again be seen today at 0.9900, below which could revert to the 20 Nov low at 0.9878 although I don’t think we get there. If wrong look for a move back below 0.9875 to where further support would been at 0.9845 and 0.9800/10.

Preferred Strategy:  Buy US$Chf @ 0.9900. SL @ 0.9870, TP @ 1.0015

The downside will find minor support at 0.7550 ahead of the stronger 0.7530/35, area, which will continue to be strong, but below which would target Fibo support at around 0.7515, a break of which would then look towards 0.7485 and 0.7460/70 (Rising trend support).

Preferred Strategy:  In the absence of any major data, a quiet day while waiting on the FOMC Minutes late in the day.

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7600. SL @ 0.7645, TP @ 0.7535

Preferred Strategy:  Overall, with the longer term (weekly) charts looking heavy, I suspect the Kiwi is currently biding its time ahead of a more sustained test of 0.6700 and lower – possibly much lower. In the short term I would be looking to sell into a squeeze towards 0.6900.

Sell NzdUsd @ 0.6880. SL @ 0.6910, TP @ 0.6790