| EURUSD: 1.2345 |
| EurUsd has reversed the losses of the previous session following the FOMC Meeting, and despite the mildly hawkish tilt from the Fed coming on top of the rate hike, the US$ has ended the day under pressure, at session lows. The PMIs and the IFO will be in focus today but also keep an eye out for the BOE Meeting, which should provide some volatility through the cross. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher | Daily Indicators: Neutral | Weekly Indicators: Possible topping formation. | |||
| Preferred Strategy: It looks like being a choppy day ahead although the Euro does look bid.On the topside, nearby resistance will be seen at 1.2355/60 ahead of the 15 March high at 1.2383. Beyond there could then return to 1.2400/10, above which could head back to 1.2440 and even to 1.2500 although not today.
Support today should arrive at 1.2300, 1.2370 and at the session low of 1.2240 although this appears unlikely to be seen. If wrong, look for a move to the minor Fibo level at 1.2220 and then at 1.2200, ahead of the greater degree of Fibo support at 1.2170. Buy EurUsd @ 1.2285. SL @ 1.2235, TP @ 1.2385 |
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.2445 | 8 March high | 1.2320 | 200 HMA | ||
| 1.2412 | 14 March high | 1.2300 | 100 HMA | ||
| 1.2383 | 15 March high | 1.2270 | Minor | ||
| 1.2358/54 | 19 March high /Session high | 1.2240 | Session low | ||
| 1.2338 | Session high | 1.2220 | (76.4% of 1.2154/1.2444) | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
EU Council Meeting, EU/US Preliminary Manufacturing PMIs – Mar, German IFO Business Climate/Expectations – Mar, EU Current Account – Jan, EU Economic Bulletin, US Jobless Claims, Kansas Fed Mfg Activity, House Price Index.
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| USDJPY: 105.97 |
| US$Jpy was choppy again following the Fed announcement, but having reached 106.63 the dollar then fell to lows of 105.87, closing at the familiar 106.00 level. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Mixed. | Daily Indicators: Turning higher | Weekly Indicators: Turning lower | |||
| Preferred Strategy: A cautious approach is required, and as we are confined within the middle of the range of the last month, we should probably expect more of the same today. Technically though, the daily momentum indicators still look mildly constructive and if we manage to break above 106.60, a test of the descending trend resistance at around 106.75 may be on the cards. Above here could stretch to 107.00 and then to 107.30/40.On the downside, back below 105.85/90, support will be seen at the 200 MMA at 105.70 and then at 105.60. Below here opens 105.25 and 105.00. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 107.00 | Minor | 105.87 | Session low | ||
| 106.73 | 14 March high / Descending trend resistance | 105.70 | 200 MMA | ||
| 106.63 | Session high | 105.67/59 | 19 March low/16 Mar low | ||
| 106.50 | Minor | 105.45 | 7 March low | ||
| 106.30 | 200 HMA | 105.25 | 2 March low | ||
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| GBPUSD: 1.4148 |
| Cable, initially underpinned by solid UK jobs data, reached a high of 1.4150 following the FOMC, closing the day at 6 week highs and looking bid ahead of today’s BOE Meeting. No change is expected but BOEWATCH sees a 70% chance of rate hike at May meeting. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher | Daily Indicators: Turning higher. | Weekly Indicators: Possible topping formation. | |||
| Preferred Strategy: Having closed at the highs, from a technical perspective the daily charts still hint at the chance of another move to the topside and if correct, look for a run above 1.4150 towards 1.4190/00, with major descending trend resistance coming in at 1.4220.On the downside, support will be seen at minor levels, at 1.4100 and at 1.4080 ahead of the initial Fibo level at 1.4045. Sidelined – wait on the BOE. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.4278 | 2 Feb high | 1.4100 | Minor | ||
| 1.4250 | Minor | 1.4080 | Minor | ||
| 1.4220 | Descending trend resistance | 1.4045 | (23.6% of 1.3711/1.4150) | ||
| 1.4195 | (76.4% of 1.4345/1.3711) | 1.4020 | Minor | ||
| 1.4149 | Session high | 1.3995 | Session low | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
UK Retail Sales – Feb, BOE Meeting/Interest Rate Decision/Statement/Minutes/Vote Count/APP Facility
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| USDCHF: 0.9490 |
| US$Chf has traded up to 0.9565 after the FOMC, but failed to take out the previous session high (0.9569) and then fell to finish at the lows of 0.9483 | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning lower | Daily Indicators: Neutral – Turning higher? | Weekly Indicators: Neutral | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The short term momentum indicators look heavy following the FOMC and a break of 0.9480 could signal a decline towards 0.9465 and 0.9420.On the topside the immediate resistance will again be seen at minor levels at 0.9510 and 0.9540 ahead of 0.9565/70. Beyond there looks unlikely today, but above 0.9570 would head d towards 0.9600, above which allows a move to the 0.9615 Fibo level. Further out, 0.9640 and 0.9665 will see sellers.
A neutral stance is now required as the dailies, previously pointing higher, do now seem to be running out of steam and I suspect we may see a bit more downside. |
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.9610/15 | Daily cloud top/(50% of 1.0037/0.9186) | 0.9480/83 | (23.6% of 0.9187/0.9569) /Session low | ||
| 0.9585 | Minor | 0.9465 | Minor | ||
| 0.9565/69 | Session high /20 Mar high | 0.9421 | 14 March low /(23.6% of 0.9187/0.9569) | ||
| 0.9540 | Minor | 0.9400 | Minor | ||
| 0.9510 | Minor | 0.9380 | (50% of 0.9187/0.9569) | ||
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| AUDUSD: 0.7767 |
| The Aud is higher today as yield plays seem to come back into favour, and this despite the fact that Australian rates are below US rates, with the differential looking likely to widen over the next 12 months, and should add to downside pressure on the Aud. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher. | Daily Indicators: Possible basing formation. | Weekly Indicators: Turning lower? | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The short term momentum indicators are looking strongly bullish and a run back towards 0.7785, 0.7805 and possibly to 0.7825 does seem to be on the cards.Overall, I prefer the downside still as I think the yield differential will eventually weigh on the Aud, despite the current move. If correct, support will arrive at 0.7735/40 and then at around 0.7700 ahead of the session low of 0.7671. Below that would allow a move towards 0.7645, with only minor support at 0.7670 lying ahead of that. Under 0.7645 would allow a move to the 100 DMA (0.7615) and to major rising trend support 0.7570, although that may take a while. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.7857 | (76.4% of 0.7916/0.7686) | 0.7740 | Minor | ||
| 0.7840 | Minor | 0.7720 | 100 HMA | ||
| 0.7822 | (61.8% of 0.7916/0.7686) | 0.7700 | Minor | ||
| 0.7805 | 200 DMA | 0.7671 | Session low | ||
| 0.7785/79 | 200 MMA/Session high | 0.7645 | (50% pivot of 0.7160/0.8135) | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
Unemployment – Feb
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| NZDUSD: 0.7235 |
| The Kiwi has reversed the losses of the previous session, and now sits at 0.7225 following the RBNZ Meeting, which contained no surprises, after having earlier soared from 0.7160 to 0.7245 following the FOMC outcome. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher | Daily Indicators: Possible basing formation. | Weekly Indicators: Turning Neutral | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The Kiwi is now at 0.7225, and looks capable of heading into the 0.7255/75 area of strong resistance, above which could revisit 0.7300.On the downside, support will be seen at 0.7200, at 0.7185 and at 0.7150-55 although this seems unlikely right now. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.7305 | (76.4% of 0.7354/0.7153) | 0.7200 | Minor | ||
| 0.7275 | (61.8% of 0.7354/0.7153) | 0.7185 | 200 DMA | ||
| 0.7265 | 200 HMA | 0.7153 | Session low | ||
| 0.7255 | (50% of 0.7354/0.7153) | 0.7140 | 10 Jan low | ||
| 0.7245 | Session high | 0.7115 | 100 DMA | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ Statement
By March 22, 2018
Source: FXCharts