| EURUSD: 1.2212 |
| EurUsd has chopped sideways since taking out stops in Asia yesterday, confined pretty much to a 1.2200/80 range through the Europe/US sessions but closing near the lows as US bond yields climber higher, putting a bid tone under the dollar. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Neutral | Daily Indicators: Up | Weekly Indicators: Turning higher | |||
| Preferred Strategy: A neutral stance seems wise right now although the longer term charts do still point to higher levels ahead. Good offers will arrive in the 1.2280/1.2320 area while a break below 1.2195 would open the way towards 1.2140. ECB/Buba speeches and the US Housing data will largely provide the direction today along with any directional move in bond markets. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.2335 | Minor | 1.2210 | Minor | ||
| 1.2322 | Session high | 1.2195 | Session low | ||
| 1.2300 | Minor | 1.2140 | 23.6% of 1.1553/1.2219 | ||
| 1.2275 | H/S Neckline | 1.2120 | Minor | ||
| 1.2250 | Minor | 1.2100 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
T: Buba Weidmann Speech, EC’s Coeure Speech, US Philadelphia Fed Mfg Survey, Housing Starts, Building Permits, Jobless Claims, EIA weekly crude oil stock change
…
| USDJPY: 111.14 |
| After chopping around between 110.20/90 for much of the day, US$Jpy has seen a late squeeze higher, to 111.20 on the back of strengthening US yields, closing at session highs. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Neutral | Daily Indicators: Turning lower | Weekly Indicators: Neutral | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The late move higher means that $/Jpy has made a bullish key day reversal. The momentum indicators are note really suggestive of any major directional move but it may now be worth sticking a bid in at around 110.50/70, with a SL placed below the trend low at 110.19 or better, below 110.00. Buy US$Jpy @ 110.70. SL @ 110.15, TP @ 111.70 | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 112.20 | 100 DMA | 110.80 | Minor | ||
| 112.00 | Minor | 110.50 | Minor | ||
| 111.70 | 200 HMA /200 DMA | 110.19 | Session low | ||
| 111.50 | Minor | 110.05 | Rising trend support | ||
| 111.23 | Session high | 109.90 | 100 WMA | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
T: Japan Industrial Production, Capacity Utilisation (Nov)
…
| GBPUSD: 1.3854 |
| Sterling headed up to a post Brexit high of 1.3942 on hopes/speculation of a 2nd Brexit referendum, but also assisted by the BoE’s Saunders less dovish rate outlook and less dour look at the UK economy. A late US$ rally has seen some of those gains evaporate, with Cable now at 1.3870. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning higher | Daily Indicators: Up | Weekly Indicators: Up | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The momentum indicators generally look positive but Cable remains very headline driven so caution is warranted. Buying dips seems to be the theme though, with a SL placed back below 1.3800Buy GbpUsd @ 1.3820. SL @ 1.3780, TP @ 1.3990 | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.4100 | Minor | 1.3870 | Minor | ||
| 1.4050 | Minor | 1.3850 | Minor | ||
| 1.4000 | Psychological | 1.3825 | Minor | ||
| 1.3975 | Minor | 1.3785 | Minor | ||
| 1.3942 | Session high | 1.3756 | Session low | ||
…
| USDCHF: 0.9628 |
| US$Chf traded a choppy 0.9572/0.9650 range on Wednesday and with the momentum indicators mixed a cautious stance is required. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Neutral – Turning higher? | Daily Indicators: Turning lower | Weekly Indicators: Neutral | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The daily charts still look heavy but the 4 hour momentum indicators hint at a retest of the 0.9650/60 area, above which could see a return towards 0.9700/20. If seen, it may be a decent sell but In the meantime look to buy dips with a tight SL.Buy US$Chf @ 0.9585. SL @ 0.9560, TP @ 0.9660 | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.9735 | Minor | 0.9572 | Session low | ||
| 0.9700 | Minor | 0.9550 | 100 MMA /Rising trend support | ||
| 0.9680 | 23.6% of 1.0004 /0.9572 | 0.9515 | Minor | ||
| 0.9665 | Minor | 0.9500 | Minor | ||
| 0.9650 | Session high | 0.9485 | Minor | ||
…
| AUDUSD: 0.7992 |
| AudUsd is trading at 0.8000 after running up to 0.8022 after the BOC raised Canadian rates and with a very busy day of data ahead today we might expect some decent volatility. The main focus will be on the Australian December Unemployment (exp 5.4%, +9K, PR: 65.4%) and the China Q4 GDP (exp 1.6% qq, 6.7%yy). | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Up | Daily Indicators: Up | Weekly Indicators: Neutral | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The longer term uptrend remains firmly intact so buying dips is probably still the plan although the short term momentum indicators are showing some bearish divergence so a cautious stance is warranted. Stand aside and go with the flow after the data. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.8102 | 20 Sept high | 0.8000 | Psychological | ||
| 0.8080 | Minor | 0.7970 | Minor | ||
| 0.8055 | 200 MMA | 0.7940 | Session low | ||
| 0.8036 | 21 Sept High | 0.7925 | Minor | ||
| 0.8022 | Session high | 0.7900 | 23.6% of 0.7510/0.7998 / Rising trend support | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
T: Australian Unemployment, New Home Sales, China House Price Index, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Q4 GDP, NBS Press Conference
…
| NZDUSD: 0.7290 |
| The Kiwi made a new trend high at 0.7330 after clearing Asia’s high and running stops above 0.7300 late in the day before a reverse in early NZ trade, to currently sit at 0.7290 | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Neutral | Daily Indicators: Up | Weekly Indicators: Turning higher | |||
| Preferred Strategy: While the medium term charts look constructive for further gains, the short term momentum indicators are turning lower and show a degree of bearish divergence suggesting a test of the downside. The Australian/China data may provide some directional movement today. Stay neutral for now. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.7400 | Minor | 0.7285 | Minor | ||
| 0.7375 | (76.4% of 0.7557/0.6780) | 0.7260 | Minor | ||
| 0.7360 | Minor | 0.7230 | Minor | ||
| 0.7343 | 22 Sept high | 0.7215 | Minor | ||
| 0.7330 | Session high | 0.7200 | (23.6% of 6780/0.7330) | ||
By
January 18, 2018
Source: FXCharts