| EURUSD: 1.1750 |
| €/Usd has traded a choppy 1.1818/1.1750 range on Friday, initially heading higher but then ending on the lows, with the dollar underpinned by the hopes at the tax bill will soon be passed. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral | Daily Indicators: Turning lower | Weekly Indicators: Neutral | |||
| Preferred Strategy: For now I prefer to remain short Euro although the rising trend support at 1.1735 is close by and may contain the downside. A break, which the daily charts suggest is possible, would allow a run back towards 1.1705/15, below which could see an acceleration towards 1.1650/80. On the topside, 1.1800 will continue to act as resistance.For Monday, look for a range of 1.1780/1.1680 with the EU CPI likely to be the key driver. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.1865 | (61.8% of 1.1960/1.1717) | 1.1750 | Friday low | ||
| 1.1847 | 6 Dec high | 1.1735 | Rising trend support | ||
| 1.1811 | Friday high | 1.1716/12 | 12 Dec low/21 Nov low | ||
| 1.1800 | 100 DMA | 1.1707 | (61.8% of 1.1553/1.1943) | ||
| 1.1785 | 200 HMA | 1.1685 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
M: EU CPI, BuBa Monthly Report, NAHB Housing Market Index
T: German IFO Business Climate/Expectations, EU Construction Output, US Building Permits, Housing Starts, Current Account API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory
W: German PPI, US Existing Home Sales, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change
T: US Philadelphia Fed Mfg Survey, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Jobless Claims, Q3 GDP, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure, House Price Index
F: German Consumer Confidence Survey, US Government Shutdown limit, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure/ Income Spending – Index, Personal Income/Spending Durable Goods Orders, Rts/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, Kansas Fed Mfg Activity, New Home Sales
…
| USDJPY: 112.61 |
| US$Jpy bounced off support at 111.95/112.00 to finish Friday near session highs of 112.73, underpinned by the rise in US stocks. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning higher | Daily Indicators: Neutral | Weekly Indicators: Neutral | |||
| Preferred Strategy: Although the daily charts remain neutral, the short term momentum indicators point higher at the start of the week and if 112.75/85 can be overcome we could then see a return to 113.00 and above, where 113.20/25 should see sellers ahead of the December high of 113.75.Dips could see a run back to 112.00/20 but buying into short term weakness currently seems to be the plan, with a tight SL placed below 111.90
Buy US$Jpy @ 112.20. SL @ 111.85, TP @ 113.25 |
|||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 113.75 | 12 Dec high | 112.50 | Minor | ||
| 113.57 | 14 Dec high | 112.30 | Minor | ||
| 113.30 | Minor | 112.02 | Friday low | ||
| 113.00 | Minor | 111.95 | (61.8% of 110.83/113.75)/6 Dec low | ||
| 112.73 | Friday high | 111.52 | (76.4% of 110.83/113.75) | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
M: Trade Balance
T: All Industry Activity Index
W: BOJ Interest Rate Decision, Press Conference, Statement
T:
F:
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| GBPUSD: 1.3317 |
| Sterling headed lower on Friday, not helped by the dovish BOE outlook or the Brexit headlines coming from the EU. After an early peak of 1.3447 Cable got hit hard in falling to 1.3301, finishing the week near the lows. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning lower | Daily Indicators: Turning lower? | Weekly Indicators: Turning higher? | |||
| Preferred Strategy: With the daily charts beginning to look heavy, further losses may be in store and below nearby support at 1.3290/00 could see a decline towards 1.3230 and then to the major rising trend support at around 1.3200.Minor resistance now lies at around 1.3350/70 and selling into strength would seem to be the plan although I remain neutral due to the choppy, headline driven price action. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.3447 | Friday high | 1.3301 | Friday low | ||
| 1.3417 | Weekly cloud top | 1.3292 | (50% pivot of 1.3039/1.3549) | ||
| 1.3390 | 200 HMA | 1.3260 | Minor | ||
| 1.3375 | Minor | 1.3232 | (61.8% of 1.3039/1.3549) | ||
| 1.3350 | Minor | 1.3195 | Rising trend support /100 DMA | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
M: CBI Distributive Trade Survey – Orders (Dec)
T:
W: CBI Distributive Trade Survey – Realised (Dec), BOE Carney Speech
T: UK Consumer Confidence, PSNBR
F: UK Q3 GDP
…
| USDCHF: 0.9903 |
| US$Chf traded a choppy range on Friday, climbing sharply to a high of 0.9933 before giving up some of the gains to finish the week at 0.9900. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Mixed. | Daily Indicators: Neutral | Weekly Indicators: Neutral | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The dailies are neutral, and the short term charts are mixed so further choppy trade looks likely, although the 4 hour charts do look mildly positive so a return towards 0.9930 would not really surprise, above which would then find sellers at 0.9965 ahead of parity. I don’t think we get there today and trading a range of 0.9880/0.9950 may cover it for Monday. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.0000 | Minor | 0.9873 | Friday low | ||
| 0.9965 | (76.4% of 0.1137/0.9816) | 0.9841 | 14 Dec low | ||
| 0.9950 | Minor | 0.9835 | 100 WMA /5 Dec low | ||
| 0.9933/35 | Friday high /12 Dec high | 0.9827 | (61.8% of 0.9742/0.9977) | ||
| 0.9905 | 200 HMA | 0.9790 | (76.4% of 0.9742/0.9977) | ||
…
| AUDUSD: 0.7640 |
| AudUsd is trading lower after reaching high of 0.7694 in Europe on Friday, where the 200 DMA halted further progress. Now at 0.7640, the short term momentum indicators are turning lower so further downside may lie ahead today. Watch for the MYEOF which may create some exaggerated volatility. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower | Daily Indicators: Turning higher? | Weekly Indicators: Turning lower | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The short term indicators are now pointing lower, and a run back towards 0.7620/30 would not surprise, below which would allow a run back to 0.7600 and possibly to 0.7575/80. The dailies still currently look positive but as I said previously, now that US rates are at parity with Australian rates I do not really think that the Aud has too much upside from here, and I would be looking for levels to sell into strength.Resistance today lies at 0.7665/70
Sell AudUsd @ 0.7670. SL @ 0.7705, TP @ 0.7580 |
|||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.7729 | 2 Nov high | 0.7637 | Friday low | ||
| 0.7700 | 7 Nov low | 0.7615 | Minor | ||
| 0.7694 | Friday high/200 DMA | 0.7600 | Minor | ||
| 0.7680 | Minor | 0.7575 | 200 HMA | ||
| 0.7665 | Minor | 0.7550 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
M: MYEFO, New Motor Vehicle Sales, China House Price Index
T: WBC Leading Economic Index, RBA Minutes, RBA Bulletin
W:
T:
F:
…
| NZDUSD: 0.6991 |
| The Kiwi made a new 2 month high of 0.7033 on Friday although it closed the week back below 0.7000 and may have put in a near term top judging by the look of the short term momentum indicators. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower | Daily Indicators: Turning higher | Weekly Indicators: Turning lower | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The daily momentum indicators still look mildly positive on Monday although the short term momentum indicators are now pointing lower and a move back towards 0..6975 and even to 0.6950 would not surprise. Below here may see 0.6925, albeit possibly not today. As before, note that the Kiwi has a reverse HS formation with a possible target of around 0.7100 so buying dips may be the more medium term plan. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.7115 | 100 DMA | 0.6978 | Friday low | ||
| 0.7100 | 200 DMA | 0.6965 | Minor | ||
| 0.7075 | (38.2% of 0.7557/0.6783) | 0.6952 | (38.2% of 0.6822/0.7033) | ||
| 0.7033 | Friday high /(38.2% of 0.7434/0.6783) | 0.6927 | (50% of 0.6822/0.7033) | ||
| 0.7010 | Minor | 0.6903 | (61.8% of 0.6822/0.7033) | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
M: WBC Consumer Survey, ANZ Activity Outlook
T: WBC Consumer Survey, ANZ Activity Outlook, Global Dairy Trade Index
W: NZ Visitor Arrivals, Current Account, Trade Balance
T: Q3 GDP
F:
…