| EURUSD: 1.1820 |
| Preferred Strategy: EurUsd was choppy within the tight 1.1800/75 range on Friday but ended up going nowhere, leaving the outlook a little cloudy at the start of the week. The bigger picture still seems to be building a head/shoulder top, so I do prefer an eventual run lower but in the meantime the current conditions look set to persist. A short term neutral stance seems wise and selling rallies is preferred. A move above 1.1880 could then see a run towards 1.1900/10, where I would look to sell again, with a SL above 1.1970.Sell EurUsd @ 1.1880. SL @ 1.1920, TP @ 1.1680
Sell EurUsd @ 1.1970. SL @ 1.2020, TP @ 1.1750 |
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| 24 Hour: Neutral-Prefer to sell rallies | Medium Term: Mildly Bearish – Prefer to sell rallies while under 1.1880 | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.1930 | (61.8% of 1.2092/1.1669) | 1.1804 | Friday low |
| 1.1920 | Descending trend resistance | 1.1795 | 11 Oct low |
| 1.1900 | Minor | 1.1760 | 200 HMA |
| 1.1879/82 | 12 Oct high/(50% of 1.2092/1.1669) | 1.1725 | Minor |
| 1.1874/70 | Session high/Neckline resistance | 1.1700 | Minor |
Economic data highlights will include:
M: EU Trade Balance, Buba, New York State Empire Mfg Index
T: German Wage Price Index, German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey, EU CPI, US Import/Export Index, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilisation, NAHB Housing Market Index, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory
W: Extraordinary EU Economic Summit, EU Construction Output, US Building Permits, Housing Starts, Beige Book ,EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change
T: EU Council Meeting, US Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Mfg Survey
F: German PPI, EU Current Account, US Existing Home Sales, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
…
| USDJPY: 111.85 |
| Preferred Strategy: The dollar ended the week below 112.00, reaching 111.68 after the CPI miss, and for the time being it looks heavy with a chance of heading towards the strong support at 111.10. As I said before, I think the dollar will eventually head higher, so buying dips is preferred although that seems unlikely to happen in the next few sessions. For today, 111.10/112.00 would seem to have it covered. | |||
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral – Mildly Bearish? | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 113.00 | Minor | 111.68 | Friday low |
| 112.74 | 9 Oct high | 111.46 | 25 Sept low |
| 112.51 | 12 Oct high | 111.30 | Minor |
| 112.03 | Friday high | 111.10 | (38.2% of 107.32/113.43) /100 DMA |
| 112.00 | Minor | 110.80 | Minor |
Economic data highlights will include:
M: Industrial Production, Capacity Utilisation
T:
W:
T: Trade Balance, Foreign Bond/Stocks Investment, All Industry Activity Index
F
…
| GBPUSD: 1.3282 |
| Preferred Strategy: GbpUsd had another strong session on Friday, trading up to 1.3337 (100 WMA) on the back of stronger UK interest rates which are diverging sharply from what is happening in the EU. The charts are mixed and the dailies still look heavy despite the strong rally late last week. I am happy to leave Cable alone for now, although a break of the 100 WMA could see a run towards the major descending trend resistance at 1.3530. In the meantime, today looks to be rangebound as traders look towards tomorrow’s CPI figure for a hint as to whether the BOE will raise rates in November. | |||
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.3450 | Minor | 1.3260 | Minor |
| 1.3415 | (61.8% of 1.3656/1.3026) | 1.3246 | Friday low |
| 1.3375 | Minor | 1.3220 | 100 HMA |
| 1.3340 | (50% of 1.3656/1.3026) | 1.3190 | 200 HMA |
| 1.3237 | Friday high/100 WMA | 1.3120 | 12 Oct low |
Economic data highlights will include:
M:
T: UK CPI, PPI, RPI
W: UK Unemployment, Inflation Report Hearing
T: UK Retail Sales
F: UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Requirements, CBI Distributive Trade Survey – Orders
…
| USDCHF: 0.9745 |
| Preferred Strategy: US$Chf was choppy on Friday but remains within the 0.9700/0.9800 range and looks likely to continue to do so early in the week. I still prefer to be long in looking for an eventual trade above 0.9800/30, but it is a frustrating trade and needs to make a move soon or it could roll over and head back towards 0.9675. Neutral. | |||
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.9850 | 200 WMA | 0.9715 | Minor |
| 0.9835 | 200 DMA/(61.8% of 1.0099/0.9420) /6 Oct high | 0.9705 | Friday low |
| 0.9807 | 9 Oct high | 0.9685 | Minor |
| 0.9789 | 10 Oct high | 0.9676 | 2 Oct low (38.2% of 0.9420/0.9836) / |
| 0.9770 | Friday high | 0.9642 | 25 Sept low |
Economic data highlights will include:
M:
T:
W:
T: Trade Balance
F
…
| AUDUSD: 0.7889 |
| Preferred Strategy: AudUsd had a strong end to the week, squeezing sharply higher after the US inflation data on Friday, with solid China data also seeming to have played an important role in sending it higher. With both the 4 hour/daily momentum indicators pointing higher, further gains look possible and a move back towards 0.7900/15 seems possible. On the downside, support currently lies at around 0.7850, and below that at the Friday low of 0.7816 although that currently looks unlikely to be bothered.Watch out today for the China CPI (exp 0.4%mm, 1.6%yy) and PPI (6.3%yy). | |||
| 24 Hour: Mildly Bullish | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.7985 | 22 Sept low | 0.7850 | Minor |
| 0.7960 | (61.8 of 0.8102/0.7732) | 0.7835 | Minor |
| 0.7940 | Minor | 0.7816 | Friday low |
| 0.7915 | (50% pivot of 0.8102/0.7732) | 0.7790 | 100 DMA |
| 0.7897 | Friday high | 0.7770 | 11 Oct low |
Economic data highlights will include:
M: China CPI
T: WBC Leading Economic Index New Motor Vehicle Sales, RBA Minutes
W:
T: Australian Unemployment, China Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Urban Investment, GDP, NBS Press Conference
F
…
| NZDUSD: 0.7173 |
| Preferred Strategy: As with the Aud, the Kiwi headed sharply higher on Friday and looks as though it has further gains ahead of it. Immediate resistance lies at 0.7200, but above which it could head on towards 0.7245. On the downside, the 100 DMA is at 0.7155 and if the kiwi fails to make headway, this may act as a near term pivot, below which could see a run back towards 0.7120 and perhaps 0.7100 although this looks unlikely right now.Watch out today for the China CPI | |||
| 24 Hour: Mildly Bullish | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.7290 | (61.8% of 0.7434/0.7058) | 0.7155 | 200 DMA |
| 0.7245 | (50% of 0.7434/0.7058) | 0.7120 | Friday low |
| 0.7215 | Minor | 0.7090 | 100 HMA |
| 0.7200 | (38.2% of 0.7434/0.7058) | 0.7077 | 12 Oct low |
| 0.7196 | Friday high | 0.7055 | 10 Oct low |
Economic data highlights will include:
M: NZ CPI
T: Global Dairy Trade Index
W:
T:
F NZ Visitor Arrivals
By October 16, 2017