As before there is an awful lot going on right now, too much too take it all in really but the main points are:
- The US$ remains very bid in the medium term against the Euro, Aud, Kiwi and Sterling in particular. The short term charts now look as though we could see some near term US$ weakness, so buying dips in the above mentioned currencies may be a day trade plan, or alternatively, wait for the rally and sell each of the currencies for an eventual resumption of the dollars longer term uptrend. As with yesterday, while I retain a long US$ medium term position, I would not be diving in on Wednesday to buy dollars at these levels, and a sell on rallies today in EurUsd/AudUsd etc would again seem to be the plan.
- US$Jpy and US$Chf, are under some pressure due to safe haven demands but both currencies remain firm in the medium term on the crosses. EurJpy and NzdJpy look as though we could see a bit of a short squeeze to slightly higher levels, but in the longer term all the Yen crosses seem to be a sell into near term strength, if seen.
- AudJpy is breaking through critical support, although it has bounced off the 79.70 low to currently sit at 80.15. While the charts are not giving much away, I suspect that we might look for a run towards much lower levels in the longer term, not ruling out 75.00.
- Gold and silver both fell heavily. The short term momentum indicators are now oversold but selling rallies remains the plan – there is much further to go on the downside I think.
- The PBOC will continue to devalue the Yuan. Buy the dollar on dips towards 6.900, with 7.000 looking like a magnet at some stage.
- Elsewhere: AudCad is lower again today and looks heavy. A possible sell on rallies.
- Stocks – leave alone. Too much action elsewhere – I prefer to be short rather than long – due to the current economic/political concerns – but the currencies and commodities are providing enough to look at right now.
By August 16, 2018
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*Trade of the day: August 16, 2018 7:44 AM(AET)
*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.
Sell EurUsd @ 1.1400. SL @ 1.1510, TP @ 1.1300
Sell AudUsd @ 0.7300. SL @ 0.7380, TP @ 0.7240
Buy AudUsd @ 0.7205. SL @ 0.7185, TP @ 0.7300
Sell NzdJpy @ 73.00. SL @ 73.40, TP @ 72.00
Sell Gold @ 1180. SL @ 1205, TP @ 1130
Sell Silver @ 14.75. SL @ 15.10, TP @ 14.00
