I will be away for the next 4 weeks, as of today, and the service will be limited. Daily updates, mainly trading ideas, will be posted at various stages during each session but the daily outlook will be on hold until I return. Happy trading!
| EURUSD: 1.1778 |
| 24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies | Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies | ||
| Preferred Strategy: The short term momentum indicators look mildly negative on Tuesday, and with the dailies still pointing lower, buying the US$ is looking a little more constructive. I would therefore attempt to sell the Euro above 1.1800, looking for a return to 1.1700, although a soft reading in today’s US Retail Sales will put the dollar back on the defensive. SL on shorts above 1.1850 | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.1890 | Minor | 1.1780 | 200 WMA |
| 1.1857 | (76.4% of 1.1909/1. 1688) | 1.1769 | Session low |
| 1.1846 | Friday high | 1.1748 | Friday low |
| 1.1837 | Session high | 1.1705 | Minor |
| 1.1795 | 200 HMA | 1.1688 | 8 Aug low |
Economic data highlights will include:
Assumption Day Holiday, German GDP(Q2), US Retail Sales, New York State Empire Mfg Index, Import/Export Index, Business Inventories, NAHB Housing Market Index, API weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory
…
| USDJPY: 109.61 |
| 24 Hour: Mildly Bullish | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Preferred Strategy: Neutral. The short term momentum indicators hint at a mild topside squeeze, and that could come about if tensions over N Korea continue to ease. The dailies are also looking less negative than yesterday, so I do mildly prefer the topside, looking for a squeeze towards 110.00/10, which should be decent resistance if we see it up there. While neutral in the medium term, for a day trade I prefer to buy dips towards 109.30/40, looking for a run up to 110.00. A break of 110.00/10 could see an acceleration higher. SL @ 108.90 | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 110.90 | (38.2% of 114.50/108.73) | 109.35 | Minor |
| 110.30 | Minor | 109.03 | Session low |
| 110.08/05 | (23.6% of 114.50/108.73) /Descending trend resistance | 108.80 | 200 WMA |
| 109.85 | Minor | 108.73 | Friday low |
| 109.76 | Session high | 108.50 | Minor |
Economic data highlights will include:
Industrial Production, Capacity
…
| GBPUSD: 1.2961 |
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies | ||
| Preferred Strategy: Neutral. Cable was choppy on Monday, finishing slightly lower and would seem set to remain that way on Tuesday, again possibly using 1.3000 as a pivot although I still prefer to sell rallies for the medium term downtrend. Watch out for the UK CPI (exp 2.5% mm, 2.7% yy), PPI and RPI which will provide the day’s direction, if a long way from expectations. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.3102 | (50% of 1.3266/1.2938) | 1.2955 | Session low |
| 1.3064 | (38.2% of 1.3266/1.2938) /200 HMA | 1.2938 | Friday low |
| 1.3052 | 8 Aug high | 1.2927 | (50% of 1.2588/1.3267) |
| 1.3021 | Session high | 1.2900 | Minor |
| 1.3000 | Pivot | 1.2847 | (61.8% of 1.2588/1.3267) |
Economic data highlights will include:
UK CPI, PPI, RPI
…
| USDCHF: 0.9721 |
| 24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Preferred Strategy: Neutral. The easing of tensions has seen another move out of the Chf, with the dollar now back towards last week’s highs. Further progress seems possible and buying dips towards/below 0.9700, with a SL placed under 0.9650 may be the plan. Targets are 0.9770, 0.9805 and then 0.9845. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.9845 | Minor | 0.9700 | Minor |
| 0.9807 | 30 May high | 0.9665 | Minor |
| 0.9772 | 8 Aug high/100 DMA | 0.9635 | Minor |
| 0.9750 | Minor | 0.9600 | 100 MMA |
| 0.9732 | Session high | 0.9582 | Friday low |
…
| AUDUSD: 0.7852 |
| 24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies | Medium Term: Mildly Bearish. | ||
| Preferred Strategy: The Aud is back towards last week’s lows and looking heavy, so once again, trading from the short side, selling rallies towards 0.7970/80 with a SL above 0.7920 could be a plan for Tuesday. The RBA Minutes will provide the guidance, but I am looking for an eventual test of 0.7800 and then 0.7780. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.7980/85 | 4 Aug high/200 MMA | 0.7844 | Session low |
| 0.7945 | Minor | 0.7838 | Friday low |
| 0.7918 | Session high | 0.7800 | Minor |
| 0.7900 | Minor | 0.7782 | (38.2% of 0.7328/0.8065) |
| 0.7875 | 100 HMA | 0.7750 | Minor |
Economic data highlights will include:
New Motor Vehicle Sales, RBA Minutes
…
| NZDUSD: 0.7287 |
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Mildly Bearish – Prefer to sell rallies | ||
| Preferred Strategy: The short term momentum indicators are neutral today but the dailies still point lower, so trading from the short side remains the them, today looking to sell near 0.7300, but looking for a move towards 0.7200. SL above 0.7330. Watch out for the Global Dairy Trade Index tonight. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.7385 | Minor | 0.7280 | Session low |
| 0.7370 | 8 Aug high/(38.2% of 0.7557/0.7251) | 0.7274 | (38.2% of 0.6817/0.7557) |
| 0.7355 | 10 Aug high | 0.7262 | 18 July low |
| 0.7330 | Session high | 0.7251 | Friday low |
| 0.7300 | Minor | 0.7215 | 12 July low |
Economic data highlights will include:
Global Dairy Trade Index
By August 15, 2017
Source: FXCharts