| EURUSD: 1.2251 |
| EurUsd was whippy on Friday but the action lay elsewhere and the pair closed not too far from the opening levels after a range of 1.2205/1.2886, leaving the overall outlook unchanged. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower | Daily Indicators: Turning lower | Weekly Indicators: Turning higher | |||
| Preferred Strategy: With the momentum indicators generally pointing lower, further losses look likely in the days ahead and a break of the Friday trend low of 1.2205 would hint at a move towards 1.2160, which should be decent support if we see it. Below there, there is little to hold the Euro up until 1.2090/1.2100.On the topside, resistance will be seen at Friday’s high of 1.2286 and then again at 1.2300 and at 1.2330.
Staying short and adding to the position by selling rallies is preferred, with 1.2300/15 looking toppish today. In the absence of any EU/US data it may end up being a tight session. Sell EurUsd @ 1.2310. SL @ 1.2360, TP @ 1.2170 |
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.2370 | (50% of 1.2537/1.2204) | 1.2205 | Friday low | ||
| 1.2330 | (38.2% of 1.2537/1.2204) | 1.2180 | Minor | ||
| 1.2300 | Minor | 1.2160 | (38.2% of 1.1553/1.2538) | ||
| 1.2283/86 | (23.6% of 1.2537/1.2204) /Friday high | 1.2135 | Minor | ||
| 1.2270 | Minor | 1.2100 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
M: US Monthly Budget Statement
T: NFIB Business Optimism Index, API weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory
W: German CPI/HICP, German/EU GDP, Industrial Production, US Retail Sales, CPI, Business Inventories, EIA weekly crude oil stock change
T: EU Trade Balance, New York State Empire Mfg Index, US PPI, Philadelphia Fed Mfg Survey, Jobless Claims, Capacity Utilisation,
F: German Wage Price Index, US Housing Starts, Building Permits, Import/Export
…
| USDJPY: 108.80 |
| US$Jpy had another volatile session on Friday, with the Jpy again acting as the star turn due to the stock market inspired deleveraging flows and safe haven demand. Having reached an early European high of 109.30, the dollar then fell sharply to 108.05 before recovering in line with US stocks, to finish the week at 108.80. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning lower | Daily Indicators: Turning Neutral | Weekly Indicators: Neutral | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The price action is highly volatile in closely tracking the stock markets and a cautious stance is needed.The levels to watch on the downside are at 108.00/10, a break of which would then find little to hold the dollar up until rising trend support at 107.80 and the 2017 low at 107.32.
On the topside, resistance will be seen at Friday’s 109.30 high, above which could see 109.75 and even 110.00+. Sidelined. Japan Holiday today. |
|||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 110.00 | Minor | 108.30 | Minor | ||
| 109.77 | 8 Feb high | 108.04 | Friday low | ||
| 109.50 | Minor | 107.80 | Rising trend support | ||
| 109.30 | Friday high /200 HMA | 107.50 | Minor | ||
| 109.00 | Minor | 107.31 | 8 Nov low | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
M: Japan Holiday
T: Q4 GDP
W:
T: Machine Tool Orders, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilisation,
F:
…| GBPUSD: 1.3824 |
| Sterling headed lower on Friday, having dipped from its early high of 1.3986 after the larger than expected UK trade deficit, and then gaining downside momentum after the EU’s Barnier Brexit comments. Having seen a low of 1.3764, Cable did manage to bounce in the weekend, to finish at 1.3822.There will be plenty of Brexit speeches this week, with UK PM May speaking in Munich at the weekend. Before then, Foreign Minister, Boris Johnson will speak on Wednesday, and further speeches are due from Brexit minister David Davis , Trade minister Liam Fox and Cabinet Minister David Lidington – dates to be confirmed. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower | Daily Indicators: Down. | Weekly Indicators: Up –Possible topping formation. | |||
| Preferred Strategy: As we said last week, Cable remains very choppy but the momentum indicators hint that the general direction will be lower so trading from the short side is still preferred.While the short term momentum indicators look heavy, they may be basing as they are becoming a little oversold but the dailies still look heavy and I suspect another run towards 1.3765 could be on the cards at some stage.
Below this, there is then little support ahead of 1.3700/3690. On the topside, the initial Fibo resistance will be seen at 1.3900 and using this as a guide to sell into is preferred today. Sell GbpUsd @ 1.3910. SL @ 1.3955, TP @ 1.3835 |
|||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.3986 | Friday high | 1.3764 | Friday low | ||
| 1.3940 | Minor | 1.3735 | Minor | ||
| 1.3900 | (23.6% of 1.4315/1.3764) | 1.3690 | (50% of 1.3038/1.4345) | ||
| 1.3875 | Minor | 1.3650 | Minor | ||
| 1.3845 | Minor | 13600 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
M:
T: UK CPI, PPI, RPI
W:
T:
F: UK Retail Sales
By February 12, 2018