| INDICES/COMMODITIES | ||
| S&P Futures | 1965 | The global indices initially headed lower, on the back of the FT headline, but have since made a partial recovery with the S+P currently sitting right on the 200 HMA at 1965. Further consolidation would seem possible ahead of Friday’s NFP result and 1950/2000 could well cover it till then. The dailies are still in recovery mode after having become severely oversold last week and it could be that we do see another squeeze higher although 1995/2000, if seen, will be difficult to overcome. If we do so, then further offers will arrive at 2010 and 2025. If China has another major downside move this week, then support would be retested at 1950 and at 1935 although this looks a little unlikely to be seen today. If wrong, then expect further losses towards 1900/10. Be nimble, but buying dips is mildly favoured. |
| DJI | 16482 | Ditto S+P. The DJI also had a session of consolidation today after the early dip to the low of 16416,. The points to watch remain unchanged. Resistances: 16600, 16685, 16765, 16915. Support: 16400, 16350, 16275. Choppy; waiting for the NFP. |
| ASX SPI | 5145 | The SPI took an early hit, care of the FT headline, and never really recovered after falling from an early high of 5217, to a low of 5129, and currently sits at 5145 while waiting for today’s RBA meeting and for the global Manufacturing PMIs to be released. The charts are mixed and thus a nimble stance is required for what could be another volatile session. Supports are seen at 5130, 5100 and 5060. Resistances are at 5170, 5190 and at 5215. Trading from the short side is mildly preferred but it looks as though it will be choppy. |
| GOLD | 1133 | Gold is unchanged after a 1125/35 range, leaving the outlook unchanged. The dailies are pretty much neutral so I would not be overly involved here at present but the points to watch are at: on the topside (as suggested by the 4 hour charts) 1140 and then at 1155/60. Bids will again arrive at 1120/25 and then at 1117. Below here looks unlikely in the short term, but further downside momentum will find bids at the minor rising trend support at 1100, below which would open the way to 1180/85 once more. |
| SILVER | 14.62 | Silver is unchanged today after a choppy 14.22/69 range and further consolidation near current levels looks likely. As I said last week, Silver now sits just above the lows seen in August 2009 (13.48) and appears destined to test the long term rising trend support from 2003, at 13.00 and to the July 2009 low at 12.48. Under there, stand back, as we could see a much deeper decline, towards 11.75 and possibly to 10.80. Eventually I suspect that the Sept 2008 low at 8.40 will come into play but this is way over the horizon at present. The topside will see resistance at 14.70 and 15.00, above which we could see a squeeze to around 15.80 but currently looks unlikely. Selling rallies seems to be the plan. |
| OIL(WTI) | 48.03 | The main mover today was oil, where WTI saw an early fall, to 43.58, followed by a huge turnaround in rocketing up to a high of 49.33 as the massive short squeeze continued for the third day in a row, with various headlines getting most of the blame. WTI virtually made it to our distant target of yesterday (49.60 : 50% of 61.54/37.73), and given the positive look of the dailies we could yet see a break of 50.00 for a move on towards 52.45 (61.8%). The 4 hour charts though are now very overbought and thus dips are highly likely, where the points to watch will be at 47.00 (minor), 46.55 (23.6% of 37.73/49.30) and then at 45.85 (minor) and at 44.90 (38.2%). |
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